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Risk, Uncertainty and Black Swans: Theoretical Differences and Practical...
Every time Milo and I teach about how organizations can make sense of their environments, we are confronted with the difficulty of explaining why uncertainty is so different from risk and why...
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Welcome to Extremistan! Why some things cannot be predicted and what that...
In an earlier post about forecasting, I mentioned the work by Nassim Taleb on the concept of black swan. In his remarkable book, “The Black Swan”, Taleb describes at length the characteristics of...
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We have met the enemy and he is, er, forecasting
There is no doubt we are terribly bad at forecasting. Even the smartest among us are. Even the best and the brightest, whom we have tasked to save the world from financial annihilation, are. Take Ben...
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